The October 2025 “State of the Industry Report” — presented in affiliation with Ryder — shares an in-depth overview across the trucking, maritime and intermodal markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. The data contained within the report provides breakdowns of capacity, volumes and rates.

In this report, you will find:

• Carriers are struggling to keep container rates stable as seasonality is upended by tariff disruptions, increasingly turning to blank sailings to do so.

• Truckload demand is on an unseasonal decline, yet tender rejections and carrier rates suggest a nationwide tightening of capacity — albeit a slow one.

• Although international intermodal volumes have been contracting since early July, rising domestic volumes have more than compensated for this decline.

• Sentiment among manufacturers is growing darker, but consumer spending has been surprisingly robust throughout the summer so far.

• Weakness in the U.S. labor market overshadowed strength in other pockets of the economy at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, after which the Fed resumed its cutting cycle for interest rates.

Download the complimentary report today to access the full insights.

The post White Paper: State of the Industry – October 2025 appeared first on FreightWaves.

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 9, 2025 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses ArcelorMittal S.A. MT, Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD and Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SID.

Industry: Steel

Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2764212/3-steel-producer-stocks-to-watch-amid-industry-challenges

The Zacks Steel Producers industry faces headwinds from a pullback in steel prices amid cautious buyer activity. Soft demand in China, amid economic weakness and a slowdown in the automotive sector, is another concern.

However, a resilient non-residential construction market augurs well for the industry. Players from the space, like ArcelorMittal S.A., Steel Dynamics, Inc. and Companhia Siderurgica Nacional, are worth a look despite near-term headwinds.

About the Industry

The Zacks Steel Producers industry serves a vast spectrum of end-use industries, such as automotive, construction, appliance, container, packaging, industrial machinery, mining equipment, transportation, and oil and gas, with various steel products. These products include hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and galvanized coils and sheets, reinforcing bars, billets and blooms, wire rods, strip mill plates, standard and line pipe, and mechanical tubing products.

Steel is primarily produced using two methods — Blast Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace. It is regarded as the backbone of the manufacturing industry. The automotive and construction markets have historically been the largest consumers of steel. Notably, the housing and construction sector is the biggest consumer of steel, accounting for roughly half of the world’s total consumption.

What’s Shaping the Future of the Steel Producers’ Industry?

Softening Steel Prices Pose Headwinds: The recent retreat in U.S. steel prices is a concern. The Trump administration’s imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel imports into the United States in March 2025 led to a surge in benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices to a peak of nearly $950 per short ton. While the administration’s early June doubling of steel tariffs to 50% and the consequent steel mill price hikes triggered only a temporary lift, it failed to effectively drive up HRC prices further to new highs as intended.

Overall demand weakness and abundant steel mill output have put a pause on a sustained price rally, dragging HRC prices to around $800 per short ton. The price retreat poses a headwind for U.S. steel producers, and a meaningful recovery is unlikely over the near term, given a well-supplied market and the persistent weakness in U.S. manufacturing. Weak consumer activities and excessive inventories have also exerted pressure on steel prices in China and Europe.

NEW YORK (AP) — Prices as of 4:05:00 PM Monday, October 27.

Lumber (CME)

27,500 bd. ft.; $ per 1,000 bd. ft.

Est vol 2,218

Fri.’s vol 1,486

Open int 8,550

Open Interest Change -102

This story was originally published on Trucking Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Trucking Dive newsletter.

The freight market is now in year three of an “unusually long downward freight cycle” and carriers are using lessons from the past to prioritize profitability and survive the ongoing soft environment, AFS Logistics CEO Andy Dyer said in a press release.

The truckload market reversed a trend of year over year declines — recording a 1.5% increase year over year in Q3, according to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index released Oct. 15. The LTL market on the other hand continues to leverage cost per shipment over volumes, helping it hold steady on prices.

To combat the soft market, LTL carriers are emphasizing yield rather than volume, proven to be a successful formula in previous down freight cycles, AFS Logistics VP of LTL Pricing Mich Fabriga said in the release. This holds true even when facing negative indicators like the Institute for Supply Management’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index, which was 49.1% in September, suggesting another month of general stagnation in the manufacturing sector.

The LTL cost per shipment went down 0.7% in Q3 YoY while weight was down 7.4%. “A longer-term indication of carriers’ successful yield management and margin protection efforts is that cost per shipment has held steady at elevated levels since Q2 2023 – a period of nine straight quarters,” per the index.

In Q4, the LTL rate per pound index is expected to remain above January 2018 baseline figures making it eight straight quarters of YoY growth.

Truckload carriers are having a bit of a harder time than LTL with excess capacity and suppressed rates, even with some positive signs from the economy.

Some positive indicators for truckload include the GDP growth in Q2 and a quarter point rate cut last month that paint a more encouraging picture for carriers, per the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index.

Even with some positives it’s still not enough to counteract the effects on rates that have been suppressed for close to three years. “In Q4 2025, the truckload rate per mile index is projected to reach 6.1% above the January 2018 baseline – a modest 0.1% QOQ increase and 0.9% YOY increase, but the 11th straight quarter with rates at or below 6.2%,” according to the freight index.

Recommended Reading

• Tariffs, economic uncertainties keep freight markets flat, analysts say

Nucor Corporation NUE entered into a collaboration with The Nuclear Company, which is aimed at revitalizing the domestic nuclear supply chain and enhancing U.S. manufacturing capacity. The Nuclear Company is focused on deploying gigawatt-scale nuclear power across America.

Nucor, which is among the prominent players in the steel space, along with Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF and ArcelorMittal MT, is focused on rebuilding America’s energy infrastructure. The resilience in the infrastructure will repower the domestic energy sector, reducing dependence on foreign suppliers.

The companies will evaluate the promotion of steel materials and related manufacturing that meet the stringent American Society of Mechanical Engineers’ NQA-1 certification standard. The review process will also take into account critical factors such as energy infrastructure and workforce availability to promote reinvestment in the industrial asset base. The initiative was announced following the recent executive orders by President Donald Trump, calling for 400 GW of nuclear reactors by 2050, including 10 large-scale reactors to be under construction by 2030, to ensure the availability of enough baseload power to lead in AI worldwide.

America’s nuclear sector supply chain has been suffering as China and Russia have expanded reactors and exported technology aggressively. The U.S. Department of Energy reported in 2022 that America lacks large forges to produce gigawatt-scale reactor vessels. Moreover, the World Nuclear Association also found a decrease in the number of American facilities certified to produce commercial nuclear-grade components by over 40% in the past three decades. In comparison to the 37 reactors China built in the past decade, the United States built just two.

Nucor recently announced its earnings guidance for the third quarter of 2025, ending Oct. 4, 2025, in the range of $2.05 to $2.15 per share. While the company’s guidance indicates a sequential decline, it suggests year-over-year growth. The earnings are expected to decrease across all three operating segments compared to the previous quarter. The steel mills segment is expected to witness decreased earnings due to lower volumes and margin compression, while the steel products segment’s earnings are expected to decrease from higher average costs per ton as pricing and demand remain stable.

Another industry leader, Steel Dynamics, also announced its third-quarter 2025 earnings guidance. The company expects third-quarter earnings to improve in each of its three operating platforms. STLD forecasts earnings in the range of $2.60 to $2.64 per share for the quarter. The third quarter’s profitability in the steel operations is also expected to improve from its sequential second-quarter results, owing to strong shipments and metal spread expansion as scrap raw material costs are expected to decline more than average realized steel pricing.

• Universal Forest Products (UFPI) is an example of what it looks like when Barchart’s indicators are all flashing red.

• Shares just hit a new two-year low and have a 100% “Sell” opinion from Barchart.

• UFPI stock is trading below all of its key moving averages, and its fundamentals look weak too.

• Price action in this hard-hit stock reflects broader challenges in the housing market and economy.

Today’s Featured Stock

Someone call Taylor Swift… The hit singer may not need to “knock on wood” anytime soon thanks to celebrity fiance Travis Kelce, but lumber stocks are in need of some good luck.

Today’s Chart of the Day focuses on one in particular, Universal Forest Products (UFPI). The company supplies wood and wood composite to retail, industrial, and construction markets. Across these three buckets, UFP supports everyone from do-it-yourself homeowners to homebuilders and RV makers.

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And like many of its peers, 2025 has been tough for Universal Forest Products. The company said on its Q2 earnings call that it continues to face “ongoing soft end market demand and competitive pricing pressures.”

This comes as lumber (LBX25) prices have been under pressure, with futures prices down more than 10% over the past three months. Trade uncertainty, with 10% tariffs on most imported lumber products, and housing market weakness, have hit demand for lumber.

What I’m Watching

We typically find our Chart of the Day features by using Barchart’s powerful screening functions to sort for stocks with the highest technical buy signals; superior current momentum in both strength and direction; and a Trend Seeker “buy” signal. Today’s feature is the opposite, and shows how effective Barchart’s tools can be at issuing warnings. The Trend Seeker signaled a new “Sell” on Sept. 17.

UFPI Price vs. Daily Moving Averages: 

Barchart Technical Indicators for UFPI

Editor’s Note: The technical indicators below are updated live during the session every 20 minutes and can therefore change each day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com website when you read this report. These technical indicators form the Barchart Opinion on a particular stock. 

US stock futures (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F) are slightly lower in Tuesday’s pre-market trading — the final trading session of September and the third quarter — with all three of the market indexes (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) expected to end the month strong.

The clock is ticking for US lawmakers to compromise on a spending bill before midnight on Tuesday, or face a government shutdown. Vice President Vance believes a shutdown is imminent.

President Trump has ordered new 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber, and a 25% tariff on wood furniture and cabinets.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief.